The exchange rate line is straight, the RMB exchange rate depreciation expectation is still undercur-木村kaela

The exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate depreciation is expected to draw straight lines still simmering Sina fund exposure: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Reporter Zhang Qinfeng – known as the "super moon" in September, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar was in smooth water especially in the last two weeks, the exchange rate movements almost pulled into a straight line. In September 29th, the bank dollar closed at 6.6690, up 22 basis points compared with the end of August, the dollar has risen more than 90 basis points. Foreign exchange analysts pointed out that the Fed rate hike to two times after the extension and improvement of economic data in August China, together to ease the short-term depreciation of the RMB pressure, and consistent stable expectations before and after RMB officially "into the basket" also play a role in. The RMB exchange rate has a certain short-term steady support, but in the four quarter, the trend of the impact of exchange rate uncertainty is still much, especially at the end of the Fed rate hike expectations may continue to increase, the amount of individual purchases at the beginning of the beginning of the end to refresh the exchange rate depreciation pressure. Looking back, the devaluation of the RMB is still difficult to eliminate expectations, but good control of the risk of devaluation, and due to the expected full, the impact is expected to weaken. The RMB exchange rate in smooth water since September, the RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to maintain a stable exchange rate, especially in the last two weeks, the spot market exchange rate movements almost pulled into a straight line. In September 29th, the interbank foreign exchange market, the RMB against the U.S. dollar price is 6.6700 yuan, compared with the previous day down 19 basis points compared to last month rose 208 basis points. After reaching 6.6971 yuan more than five year lows in July, the renminbi against the dollar once again showed two-way fluctuations in the last two months has been around 6.67 yuan back and forth concussion. In September, the middle price range tends to converge, according to statistics, since September, the renminbi against the dollar in September 22nd that day more than 200 basis points of the adjustment, and in August more than 200 basis points, the fluctuation appears 6 times; in the past three days, the middle price fluctuation were not more than 100 basis points. RMB market prices fluctuate more stable. 29, the territory of the RMB against the U.S. dollar spot inquiry transactions price is always hovering in the closing price of 6.6712 yuan before near 16:30, the closing price of 6.6690 yuan, up 22 basis points; statistics show that since September, except for September 7th, 9, onshore RMB spot rate decline was less than 100 basis points over the past 7 days further convergence to no more than 30 basis points. In addition, the closing price rose by 93 basis points from 6.6783 yuan at the end of last month. Not only the onshore exchange rate, but also the RMB exchange rate volatility of the Hongkong market (CNH) has slowed down significantly. Since September, the exchange rate of CNH most of the time in the 6.67 yuan to 6.69 yuan range, last week is the anchor of 6.68 yuan continued to narrow range; 29, CNH exchange rate opened at 6.6844 yuan, days and a slight concussion, as the Beijing time 16:30 at 6.6802, intraday on

汇价划直线 人民币汇率贬值预期仍暗流涌动 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   □本报记者 张勤峰   在被称为“超级月”的9月份,人民币兑美元汇率竟风平浪静,尤其是最近两周汇价走势几乎拉成了一条直线。9月29日,在岸人民币兑美元即期汇率收盘价报6.6690,微涨22基点,较8月底汇价累计上涨逾90基点。   外汇分析人士指出,美联储二次加息时点继续后延与8月中国经济数据改善,共同缓和人民币短期贬值压力,而人民币正式“入篮”前后的一致稳定预期也在发挥作用。人民币汇率短期持稳具有一定支撑,但进入四季度,影响汇率走势的不确定性因素仍多,特别是年底美联储升息预期恐继续增强,年初个人购汇额度刷新也增添年底年初汇率贬值压力。往后看,人民币贬值预期仍难以消除,好在贬值风险可控且因预期充分,影响有望减弱。   人民币汇率风平浪静   9月以来,人民币兑美元汇率持续保持稳定,特别是最近两周,即期市场汇率走势几乎拉成了一条直线。   9月29日,银行间外汇市场人民币兑美元汇率中间价设于6.6700元,较前一日下调19个基点,较上月末上涨208个基点。在7月份创出6.6971元的五年多新低之后,人民币兑美元汇率中间价再度呈现双向波动,最近两个多月一直围绕着6.67元来回震荡。进入9月份,该中间价波动区间趋于收敛,据统计,9月至今,人民币兑美元汇率中间价只在9月22日这一天出现超过200基点的调整,而8月份波动超过200基点的情况共出现了6次;过去三个交易日,该中间价上下波动均未超过100个基点。   人民币市场价格波动还要更加稳定一些。29日,境内人民币兑美元即期询价交易报价始终徘徊于前收盘价6.6712元附近,16:30收盘价报6.6690元,微涨22基点;统计显示,9月以来,除了9月7日、9日,在岸人民币即期汇率涨跌幅均不超过100个基点,过去7个交易日进一步收敛至不超过30个基点。另外,该收盘价较上月末的6.6783元上涨93基点。   不光是在岸汇率,香港市场的离岸人民币(CNH)汇率波动也明显趋缓。9月以来,CNH汇价多数时候位于6.67元至6.69元区间内,上周以来更是锚定6.68元持续窄幅震荡;29日,CNH汇价开盘报6.6844元,日内来回小幅震荡,截至北京时间16:30报6.6802,盘中上涨42基点。   值得一提的是,因欧盟、日本和美国三大经济体央行相继召开货币政策会议,之前市场将9月份视为一个超级月,尤其是在年内升息窗口期已然寥寥无几的情况下,9月份美联储议息会议结果及政策声明牵动市场神经。回头来看,在这个超级月里,人民币汇率走势竟然风平浪静。   多因素支撑人民币走稳   在一些市场人士看来,9月份人民币汇率保持稳定基本符合预期。   首先,7、8月份,人民币兑美元汇率已有趋稳迹象。经过去年四季度到今年年初、今年5至7月中旬先后两波贬值,人民币汇率从6.3元一路跌至6.7元,贬值持续的时间较长、幅度较大,前期积累的贬值压力得到了一定程度的释放,人民币暂时企稳的市场预期逐步形成。特别是,6.7元被普遍视为重要的心理关口,市场对货币当局维稳汇率抱有较强期待,而为避免跌破6.7元加重汇率贬值预期,货币当局也具有在6.7元附近干预汇率的动机,或许因为市场预期与政策目标相向而行,人民币汇率在跌至6.7元附近后展现出了较强的韧性。   其次,8月份中国经济数据出现了一定改善。除了CPI下行幅度超过预期之外,8月份包括投资、消费、外贸在内的宏观经济指标表现都要好于预期,机构预计房地产投资回升对经济的托底作用还将持续一段时间,而出口已经呈现较明显的边际改善趋势,进口增速也实现转正。中国经济运行释放的正面信号有助于减轻人民币汇率承受的基本面压力。   再者,美联储一如预期地延后加息,为人民币汇率暂时企稳提供了有利条件。在此前两轮人民币贬值中,美元的走势在其中均起到关键性的作用。美元升值一直是近几年推动人民币汇率贬值的主要外部因素。在年内升息窗口已所剩无几的情况下,9月份美联储议息会议引发了高度关注,但认为美联储将在此次会议上实施加息的观点并不占多数,最后的议息会议结果也符合多数人的预期。美联储推后加息使得人民币面临的外部压力暂时缓解。不难发现,9月以来,美元指数也大致呈现横盘震荡,近几日波动甚小,与美元兑人民币汇率走势比较一致。   此外,7月过后,包括企业分红购汇在内的购汇需求减弱,季节性购汇压力减轻,外汇市场供求更趋平衡。外管局数据显示,8月份银行代客结售汇逆差32.65亿美元,较7月份的逆差197.52亿美元明显减少,且逆差规模为2015年7月以来最小。   最后,人民币“入篮”在即,市场对近期人民币汇率持稳的预期很强。按计划,10月1日,人民币将正式加入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子。人民币“入篮”可能提升对人民币计价资产的需求,从而可能对人民币汇率产生一定的向上作用。过去几个月,境外机构频频增持人民币债券可能就体现了人民币“入篮”的影响。更关键的是,市场普遍认为,在人民币正式“入篮”前后,货币当局维稳汇率的意愿较强,市场一致预期对汇率走势产生了潜移默化的影响。   四季度贬值隐忧犹存   市场对人民币汇率短期持稳具有一定共识,但值得注意的是,市场对四季度汇率走势存在分歧,有部分观点认为四季度人民币可能再度迎来一轮贬值,这些担忧并非完全没有道理。   综合来看,市场对人民币汇率的担忧集中在几点:一是担忧汇率维稳力量再度减弱。一些观点认为,人民币正式“入篮”之后,货币当局可能再度减少对汇率的干预,且伴随着人民币国际化,干预汇率的难度和成本将不断加大。二是担忧美元升值重新来袭。三是担忧季节性购汇压力提前呈现。   分析人士指出,在近期人民币汇率企稳过程中,很难判断外汇干预到底发挥了多大的作用,甚至于连到底是外汇干预在发挥作用还是干预预期在支撑市场都很难判断,但比较明确的是,对外汇干预的预期在一定程度上稳定了市场对汇率走势预期。如果市场担忧汇率维稳力量将减弱,则不排除贬值预期会再度抬头。另外,美联储9月按兵不动,可能刺激市场对12月美联储加息的预期上升,美联储9月议息会后发布的“点阵图”也显示,美联储或于今年12月加息一次。随着9月议息的影响消退,市场将转而更加关注美联储12月加息的影响,美元可能重新获得上涨动力,从而对人民币汇率施加压力。最后,明年初个人购汇额度将刷新,不排除会出现类似今年一季度居民集中购汇现象,如果市场普遍认为年初贬值压力会加大,那么就可能有人选择提前购汇,导致贬值预期提前兑现。因此,上述几点担忧并非完全没有道理。   分析人士进一步指出,本轮人民币贬值压力归根到底有两点:一是中国经济调整,资产回报下降;二是美国经济较早复苏,货币政策提前回归正常化。从根本上看,人民币汇率企稳有赖于经济有效企稳,打破中美利差收敛的势头。这一点还需要观察,人民币贬值预期暂时还难以消除。不过,人民币贬值压力已有所释放,后续贬值风险总体可控,且货币当局维稳汇率的动力仍在,人民币出现贬值失速的可能性小。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: